AccuWeather forecast calls for winter previews in Nov. and Dec. 2022

Don Cote clearing the pathways at the Duck Pond Wildlife Care Center, in China. (File photo)

by Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer.

Winter is fast approaching, but AccuWeather meteorologists say that it will shape up much differently than last winter in part due to a volcano that erupted on the other side of the globe.

From the abundance of acorns in the fall to the bushiness of squirrel tails, many fanciful forecasting techniques have been used over the years as a means to glean a glimpse of what the weather will be like in the upcoming winter.

AccuWeather’s approach to concocting the winter forecast, one of its most highly-anticipated seasonal outlooks, is a bit different: The process involves a team of veteran long-range forecasters analyzing computer models, looking at how previous winters have played out and using their own personal experience to determine if it’s going to be a snowy winter, if and when the polar vortex will unleash Arctic air across North America and whether it will be a good season for skiers.

This winter is indeed looking like a snowy one across most of the northern tier of the contiguous United States, but AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok says, there is more to the forecast than just snowstorms.

Pastelok and his team of long-range forecasters are predicting a “triple dip La Niña,” as it is the third winter in a row that La Niña will shape the weather patterns across the U.S. The regular climate phenomenon occurs when the water near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than average, which in turn influences the jet stream and the overall weather patterns in North America. Despite what will be the third La Niña winter in a row, this winter will not necessarily be a carbon copy of the past two.

“These third-year La Niñas are very tricky,” Pastelok said, with no two La Niña winters being exactly the same. The weather setup will be one of the most complicated and dynamic in recent memory due to all of the weather factors in play over the upcoming months, Pastelok said.

One of the more unusual factors that could influence the overall weather patterns this winter can be traced back to a cataclysmic volcano eruption that took place in the early weeks of 2022. The volcano spewed an unprecedented amount of debris high into Earth’s atmosphere which, as Pastelok will explain, could still be having an effect on the weather on a global scale.

With this in mind, AccuWeather is ready to make its annual prognostication of the U.S. winter forecast.

Will snow shovels gather dust in Northeast?

A wave of chilly air swept across the Northeast and Midwest just in time for the arrival of astronomical autumn, which started on Sept. 22, but the arrival of astronomical winter on Dec. 21 may not start in a similar fashion.

Residents across the Northeast will experience a few winter previews in November and December as waves of cold air dive down from Canada, but the biggest blasts of cold air will hold off until later in the winter.

New England is one of the only areas east of the Rocky Mountains where snowfall could end up being above normal. The snowfall totals will be boosted by a few nor’easters, with January and March bringing the highest chances of powerful coastal snowstorms.

Boston may end up being the only major city along the Interstate 95 corridor that finishes the winter with near-normal snowfall. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. Last winter, Boston finished the season with 54 inches of snow with 23.5 inches falling during a blizzard on Jan. 29.