Fall weather preview

Kayakers in Brunswick

Provided by Accu-Weather

It has been a hot summer across the United States with the mercury frequently flirting with the 100-degree mark in countless cities and towns across the country and even some of the longest-duration heat waves in a decade. However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for those awaiting the return of hoodie weather, pumpkin-flavored beverages and even snow.

AccuWeather’s team of long-range meteorologists, led by veteran forecaster Paul Pastelok, has been cooking up the long-term forecast for this autumn, blending together data from computer models, analyzing weather patterns around the globe and reflecting on past years. After combining the forecasting ingredients, the team has boiled down the seasonal outlook into one word: warm.

Meteorological autumn officially kicked off on Thursday, Sept. 1, and continues through Wednesday, Nov. 30. This is consistent year after year, making it easier for scientists to compare one season to another. “With pretty good confidence this year,” Pastelok said, “I think it’s a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.” Warmth will dominate the forecast from Connecticut to California, but AccuWeather forecasters break down what else the season may entail, weighing in on where rainfall will be a frequent visitor and which areas may face tropical threats.

Plus, will snow shovels be needed before the official arrival of winter? And will this autumn be a good year for leaf-peepers hoping to snap incredible photos of vivid fall foliage? Find out the answers to these questions and more with a complete region-by-region breakdown of the U.S. fall forecast:

October to bring major weather shift in Northeast. As the calendar flips from August to September, millions of residents across the Northeast might not feel much of a change as summer-like warmth extends its stay over the region, but big changes are in the offing with the arrival of October.

Above-normal heat paired with spells of dry weather throughout the summer allowed pockets of drought to develop across New England, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. As a result, small streams have run dry, lawns have started to change from green to brown and cooling costs have gone up.

The warmer-than-normal pattern is expected to continue into the start of autumn across the regions as students go back to school and football season kicks off.

For those looking forward to enjoying autumnal scenery, the widespread warmth could delay the peak of fall foliage in popular viewing areas. But, forecasters say the wait could be worth it this year as vibrant colors are likely to unfold on the hillsides across most of the Northeast.

AccuWeather long-range forecasters believe that an increase in moisture will help to promote rain across the Northeast heading into autumn, helping to wash away drought concerns, but that the rain will be a double-edged sword.

“The severe weather threat will pick up again,” Pastelok said. Some of the rain may not come in the form of severe thunderstorms, but rather from a named tropical system.

Last year, multiple tropical systems had significant impacts in the Northeast. “It is something to watch. But we just don’t have the confidence yet to say that a major strike is going to hit the Northeast at this point,” said Pastelok.

A stormy pattern could set up over the Northeast in late October into November, including the chance for the first snowflakes of the season across the interior Northeast.

AccuWeather is predicting that there will be 16 to 20 named tropical storms during this hurricane season, including six to eight hurricanes and four to six direct U.S. impacts. Last year, there were 21 named storms, seven hurricanes and eight direct U.S. impacts. There have already been three named storms so far this year, including Tropical Storm Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie and Tropical Storm Colin.

Areas from Florida to the Carolinas are forecast to take the brunt of the activity this hurricane season.